Will the current frontrunner win Best Picture?

Resolves Yes per Academy announcement. Volume $3M · Open interest 1.3M contracts · Settles in 205d

37¢Yes · 37%63¢No · 63%

Probability of Yes · volume bars

Order book · YesContracts

40¢2,961

39¢916

38¢2,169

37¢1,440

36¢3,642

35¢2,740

Rules & resolutionResolves to Yes if the film listed as the frontrunner at market open is announced as the Best Picture winner at the ceremony.Full rules on Kalshi

Related:Best Director

Buy Yes

ContractsAvailable $0.00

× 37¢

Payoff

Cost$37.00

Pays if Yes$100.00

Max loss$38.64

Breakeven probability38.6%

Return if correct+158.8% after fees

Kalshi fee · $0.07 × 0.37 × 0.63 × 100$1.64

OpenSea share · 30% of fee (included)$0.49

Total$38.64

Fee recomputes as the price moves — highest at 50¢ (1.75¢), lowest near 0¢ or $1. OpenSea's share is inside Kalshi's fee, never added.

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